Who to Target Heading Into the NBA Playoffs: A Collector's Guide to Buying the Right Stars at the Right Time

As a longtime basketball card collector and investor, timing the market around the NBA Playoffs has always been a double-edged sword. A player’s postseason performance can send their card prices soaring — or crashing — depending on expectations, hype, and long-term stability.

To help navigate this year’s playoffs, we’ve built a composite rating system using three weighted categories:

- Title Impact on Collectibility (How much a championship would elevate their card market)

- Chance of Winning a Title (Realistic odds of their team going all the way)

- Price Stability in the Event of a Loss (Will their card market tank or hold steady?)

Each category is scored out of 10, giving a maximum of 30 points. Based on that, here’s our countdown of the seven most important players for investors to watch — from riskiest to most reliable.

7. Anthony Edwards – 16 Points

Title Impact: 8

Title Chance: 4

Price Stability: 4

Edwards is electric, and collectors are buying into his upside — but Minnesota's lack of playoff experience and crowded Western Conference path make this a dangerous short-term play. His card market is momentum-driven, and an early exit could hurt values fast. Long-term he's a stud, but playoff speculation on Ant carries big risk.

6. Luka Dončić – 17.5 Points

Title Impact: 7.5

Title Chance: 5

Price Stability: 5

Luka’s ceiling is undeniable — a title this year would put him into the elite tier of modern hobby icons. But the Mavs’ inconsistent supporting cast and low title odds make him a bet on miracle-level output. Luka's market has been volatile all year, so tread carefully if you're buying into playoff hopes alone.

5. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – 20 Points

Title Impact: 8

Title Chance: 8

Price Stability: 4

Shai's breakout year has put him firmly in MVP talks, and OKC’s #1 seed makes a Finals run possible. But despite the hype, his card market still doesn’t have the same foundational base as other stars. A deep run would help him tremendously, but an early upset could lead to a sharp dip. Great upside, but not much cushion if things go south.

4. LeBron James – 21 Points

Title Impact: 7

Title Chance: 5

Price Stability: 9

At this stage in his career, LeBron’s legacy is already cemented. A surprise title run would definitely give his cards a jolt, but even a first-round exit won't significantly hurt his market. His rookie cards are essentially blue-chip assets — the postseason is more of a narrative bonus than a necessity for value.

3. Nikola Jokić – 21.5 Points

Title Impact: 7.5

Title Chance: 5

Price Stability: 9

Jokić has already proven himself as one of the most dominant players of this generation, and a second title would boost his market in a meaningful way. That said, collectors have been slow to fully embrace him compared to flashier stars. He's a much safer play than SGA or Ant, but not guaranteed to take off even with a deep playoff run.

2. Stephen Curry – 21.5 Points

Title Impact: 7.5

Title Chance: 5

Price Stability: 9

Steph’s in a similar boat to LeBron: aging superstar, massive legacy, and an insulated card market. If the Warriors go on a run, expect a mini-spike — especially in rare inserts and low-pop refractors — but the real value here is in his long-term security. He’s not a gamble, he’s a vault play.

1. Jayson Tatum – 22 Points

Title Impact: 7

Title Chance: 8

Price Stability: 7

This is Tatum’s year. Boston’s roster is loaded, and anything short of a Finals appearance will be seen as a disappointment. He has the best blend of title probability and market upside — and unlike Shai or Ant, his floor is relatively stable. A championship would shift his hobby status from star to superstar, and prices will follow.

Final Thoughts

As always, playoff card buying comes down to one question: are you chasing upside, or insulating downside? If you’re after value spikes, Edwards and SGA offer the best swing-for-the-fence upside. But if you’re building a portfolio with long-term resilience, Curry, LeBron, and Jokić are where your money is safest.

Tatum, however, might be the best of both worlds. He’s already close to hobby elite — and a ring might be the push his market needs to reach the next level. Collect accordingly.