The date is October 5, 2024. The overall Wemby madness in the hobby has died down to some degree, and collectors are left asking: “Which of his rookies will retain value?” Like any industry, not every brand or company can be a long-term “winner.” The same is true for brands of Wemby's rookie cards. At this point, I can comfortably say that his non-autographed Topps Chrome rookies have little chance of being long-term winners, and I don't have high hopes for the autographed versions either. Below, I'll break down why.
It’s NOT Liscensed
I'm going to rip off the band-aid and start with the most glaring issue facing the 2023 Topps Chrome release: it is NOT licensed, meaning no team logos are featured on uniforms or the cards, and the team is not mentioned. Over the last 30 or so years in the hobby, collectors have never gravitated toward non-licensed rookie cards, and expecting them to start now is a huge mistake.
In the early days of sports and basketball cards, this might have been appreciated, as it was the ONLY release collectors could get their hands on. However, that hasn't been the case for the last thirty-plus years.
Some believers in the 2023 Topps Chrome argue, "Well, 2009 doesn’t feature players in their jerseys." My response would be, “It DOES feature their team logos,” and it marked the end of an era for one card manufacturer and the beginning of another.
Another argument from Topps Chrome supporters is that 2023 will be a significant release, as it marks the return of Chrome since its departure in 2009. However, what many fail to realize is that, like with movies, the sequel is no guarantee to be as good. Many re-releases of iconic brands, like PMG or unlicensed Exquisite rookies, pale in comparison to the success and values of cards from the initial release.
Influx of Brands & Cards
This is a talking point that’s brought up every year, but it bears repeating: more rookie cards are being printed now than ever before. Not only has the parallel count for a respected brand like Prizm increased dramatically from 2022 to 2023 (2023 featured 63 unique parallels in total), but new products have also been created to capitalize on the hype (such as Prizm Deca). Topps has also entered the fold with brands like Chrome and Mercury, ensuring they get their share of the Wemby rookie card market.
Perhaps Topps Chrome could have stood out if it had opted for a more limited or premium release, but the checklist and vast amount of Wembanyama rookies show that they aimed to make as much money upfront as possible. The base card with no autograph has 27 unique parallels, many of which are unnumbered. While the base autograph has only five parallels in total (excluding the base), various other insert rookie autographs of Wemby, like the 1972 Variation of the Certified Rookie Autographs, were included in the product.
Overall, while I wouldn’t say the 2023 Topps Chrome basketball set was vastly overprinted, it's clearly not a limited or premium product. Given the vast array of options available to collectors seeking a Wemby rookie and the other unfavorable conditions, it’s easy to see a path where collectors disregard this Topps Chrome release.
Stuck in the Middle
One of the biggest issues facing Topps Chrome in the long term is its position of being stuck in the middle. If the 2023 Topps Chrome rookie autographs were Wemby’s first pack-released autographs, they might have found a long-term place in Wembanyama’s card market, but his Bowman University rookies complicate things. These cards feature Victor in his Metropolitans 92 uniform, the team he played for in France before his rookie year, and are his true first autographs. This designation likely removes a cohort of collectors who value "firsts" of an athlete.
While it's understandable to argue that the Bowman U cards don’t feature Wemby in his pro uniform or colors, the fact remains that the 2023 Topps Chrome set is still unlicensed. Many collectors, including myself, would prefer an entirely different route. To me, a rare, licensed rookie is a much cleaner investment than dealing with this jumbled autograph situation.
In summary, the issue with Topps Chrome is that it attempts to hit many of the boxes that historically make for a good rookie card, but it doesn’t hit them well. The 2023 Topps Chrome does not feature Wemby’s first autograph card, nor does it house his first autographed card in a Spurs uniform, and as a whole, it is unlicensed.
Perhaps it could survive one or two of these issues, but given that all three are present, I believe the 2023 Chrome release faces a bleak future in terms of aftermarket value.
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